Market Forecasting Services Analyst I

Summary

The Market Forecasting Services (MFS) Analyst may work in various distinct areas; short-term forecasting, long-term forecasting, load research, load evaluations, capacity forecasting, capacity reconciliation and various market related analysis. Within these areas, the MFS Analyst leads, assists and/or supports the critical functions necessary for the success of the group.    

The MFS Analyst develops comprehensive, dynamic, and static forecasts of demand, energy, capacity and coincident peak loads, as well as production sales delivery and New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)-related bids and bilateral transactions for all of NYPA’s customers.  The MFS Analyst manages all of the load and capacity transactions within the NYISO marketplace.  Serve as authoritative source for all load and capacity related data associated with the aforementioned transactions for internal and external stakeholders. #LI-VB1

Responsibilities

• Support the execution of all existing Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) system functions related to the development and improvement of fourteen-day-ahead hourly DAM forecasts.  This includes scheduling all hourly NYISO load bids, fixed bids and bilateral transactions for all Load Serving Entity (LSE) and Non-LSE loads. This also includes regression analysis, R-Squared analysis, T-Stat analysis, and Standard Error Analysis. 
• Perform weather normalization/load growth studies, and provide supporting variance analysis, monthly balancing summaries with graphs, and reports for Senior Analysts/Management review. Also includes insuring Scheduling procedures are in compliance with contracts, Tariffs and NYISO market rules.
• Review/Challenge all NYISO Load Invoicing for billing errors or abnormal load reconciliations. Includes coordinating between the NYISO and Transmission Owners.
• Be “on call” for rotational shifts, to provide afterhours support
  • to monitor forecast/scheduling for variances over weekends or holidays due to shifts in forecasted weather or anomalous load shifting events.
  • to revise forecasts and adjust NYISO Schedules to account for unexpected customer outages/load reduction events that would yield significant forecast variance.  This includes contacting third parties to confirm bilateral transactions awaiting second party confirmations with the NYISO.
• Provide support to all internal/external stakeholders for all LSE  & non-LSE customer load related matters, inquiries and analytics; this includes, Accounting, Energy Resource Management, Generation Resource Management, Financial Planning, Enterprise Risk, Demand Response, Pricing, Settlements and the Capacity Group.
• Provide monthly support in the execution of all existing Long-Term Market Forecasting (LTMF) functions for use in the Operating Forecast, Cost of Service and Long-Range Financial Plan (OF and LRFP) related to ten-years ahead, by compiling sales data and updating forecast templates for review with the MFS team and the primary LTMF analyst. This includes both forecasting systems as well as manual modeling.
• Prepare and schedule the monthly forecasts (day type by hour) for those loads handled outside of the STLF system that require manual calculations.
• Assist in the preparation of assumptions for the next forecast period by providing research documentation and supporting data for the LTMF.
• Coordinate functions and provide research data to internal and external parties including Investor Owned Utilities, Energy Resource Management, Scheduling & Settlement, and Accounting.
• Assist in the load evaluation process by the utilization and input of data into the SAP billing system, the Data Warehouse, the Meter Engineering Group MV-90 system.
• Collaborate with Energy Resource Management to resolve scheduling and settlement issues to ensure appropriate customer billing.

Knowledge, Skills and Abilities

• Strong analytical background in Economics, Finance, and Accounting is preferred.
• Proficient computer software and database skills.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite.
• Strong written and oral communication skills
• Ability to interface with groups within MED, other NYPA Departments, consultants, and outside agencies
• Ability to propose solutions to a given problem
• Ability to propose strategies to react to a changing environment
• Ability to prioritize work, multi-task, and self-start.
• Good understanding of NYPA’s Load Forecasting practices for energy and/or capacity.
• Ability to independently make decisions that impact the business and assists in the development of policies surrounding forecasting and settlement is required.
• Basic understanding of New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and NYPA’s role in the NYISO marketplace

Education, Experience and Certifications

• A Bachelor’s degree required; Business, Economics, Marketing, Finance, Accounting, or a related discipline preferred.
• Minimum of 2 years of Utility-related experience is preferred.
• Minimum of 4 years of related experience in an analytical role.
• Advanced degree in Marketing, Economics, Finance or an MBA is preferred

Physical Requirements

• Role requires travel between various NYPA/customer locations when necessary ... approximately 10 times per year.
• Must be available for “on call” rotation.